Portugal take on the visitors Luxembourg in the round 6 match of UEFA Euro-2024 qualification. The match will be played on Monday, September 11th at Estádio Algarve (Faro/Loulé).
In my opinion, the bookmakers might have been influenced by Portugal's victory in Luxembourg, which is why they are offering these odds. After that match, the European Brazilians played three matches in the Euro 2024 qualification cycle and won all three. However, they didn't win any of them by more than a three-goal margin. They defeated Bosnia 3-0 at home, a team currently below Luxembourg in the group standings. Then they narrowly beat Iceland and Slovakia, both with a 1-0 scoreline. In fact, in the match against Slovakia, Portugal's expected goals (xG) were only 1.02, and in the clash with Iceland, it was as low as 0.72.
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Luxembourg have been improving year by year. Of course, they are still far from the level of Portugal. However, if their opponent in this match plays as they did against Slovakia and Iceland in their previous meetings, it's unlikely that we should expect a major thrashing in this match. Their loss to Portugal (0-6) remains the only defeat for the Red Lions in the current Euro qualification. It may sound unusual, but Luxembourg are still one of the main contenders for the second place in the group. They have outgrown the level of Liechtenstein's national team, and they have looked impressive in matches against direct competitors, with victories over Bosnia and Herzegovina (2-0), Iceland (3-1), and a draw against Slovakia (0-0, away).
Yes, during this World Cup 2024 qualification cycle, Portugal thrashed Luxembourg 6-0 even in an away match. However, I have serious doubts about a repeat of such a scenario. In that game, the Red Lions completely collapsed in the early minutes, conceding three goals by the 18th minute. I strongly doubt the same thing will happen again. If the guests can withstand the initial pressure from the hosts, then a handicap of (+3.5) on Luxembourg could very well pay off. We have seen how Portugal have been playing recently. They secure victories, but there is no overwhelming dominance or a high number of goals. A 1-0 scoreline in favor of the European Brazilians are becoming a common result. My prediction is that the favorite will not win by more than three goals”
Prediction for the match: Under 3.0 scored goals.