Portugal faces Germany in round 2 of the Euro. The match will be played on Saturday, June 19th at Allianz Arena (Munich)
The score of the previous match may cause an impression that the Portuguese showed outstanding football and easily beat an obvious outsider in the face of Hungary (0-3). But the game itself was less straightforward. The Portuguese dominated in the first half, having 67% of ball possession. The Hungarians defended deeply in a 5-3-2 formation. Fernando Santos' charges pinned their attacking hopes on Bernardo Silva, Fernandes, Jota, and Ronaldo. These players did not have a severe attachment to their positions. This allowed them to move great on an individual level, but there was no team interaction in the combination game. Although the Portuguese almost did not give the ball to the opponent, they were able to deliver only five shots on goal. The game of Selecao was refreshed by substitutions in the lineup, and they managed to open the scoring in the 83rd minute. This goal influenced the Hungarians, and they began to play with less confidence. In the 87th minute, Portugal earned and converted a penalty, and Ronaldo scored the third goal in added time.
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The Germans beat the French in terms of expected goals but looked weak in general. In terms of the danger of chances, Germany gained 1.1 xG, and France’s indicator was 0.3. The difference is impressive, but it is difficult to explain it by the good performance of the Germans. On the contrary, the team looked insufficiently organized and not dangerous in the foreign penalty area, although it brought more attacks to shots (11 versus 4 for the French). In many ways, the number of German shots was influenced by an unusual formation of the Blues (4-3-3 instead of the more standard 4-2-3-1). The Germans found room to pass forward, especially behind the back of Mbappé. However, the German national team did not look powerful enough and certainly did not deserve a victory. The team lacked organization in the spatial distribution of players and had problems with creating dangerous chances.
The Portuguese national team experienced problems in the first round, but it must be borne in mind that they had to play against a very closed opponent. The Portuguese lacked clarity in interaction in the final third, and a well-built positional game is especially important in matches against teams with deep defenses. Unlike Hungary, Germany will not sit back on heels, which means that Portugal will not need to breach the opponent's block. The team will be able to rely more on the individual skill of their attacking players. Given the shape of Germany, Portugal has a very high chance of gaining at least a draw in a rather pragmatic style.
Prediction for the match: Portugal to win with +0.5 handicap and Under 2.5 goals scored
