Philadelphia Union hosts Orlando City in round 21 of US MLS. The match will be played on Sunday, July 7th at Talen Energy Stadium (Chester)
Philadelphia Union is in second place in the overall championship standings of MLS and in the first place in the Eastern Conference. Let's look at the advanced statistics of this team: Philadelphia is lucky, although this luck can be called rather attendant (GD-xGD = 2.2), yet this fixture did not impose a special influence on their position. Let’s consider Philadelphia Union’s game in the attack: 37 balls scored, xG = 32.4; Philadelphia Union delivers rather quality shots either: xG/Sh = 0.13 (4th place in the league). Yes, there is a certain overperforming, but Philadelphia Union looks very worthy in the attacking line. In defense, Philadelphia Union has almost no overperforming: the team allowed 26 goals with xGA = 25.6. Truth be told, Philadelphia allows rather quality shots: xGA/Sh = 0.1 is far from an ideal result.
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Orlando City ranks 18th in the MLS championship overall standings, and it is 10th in the Eastern Conference. In general, Orlando City has bad luck this season (GD-xGD = -4.1); this figure cannot be called critical, but this factor has brought Orlando City several positions lower. Let’s consider Orlando City’s game in the attack: the team scored 25 goals, while its xG = 26.1 (there is underperforming), while Philadelphia Union delivers fairly high-quality shots on the opponents’ goal: xG/Sh = 0.14 (only Los Angeles delivers more (their xG/Sh = 0.15). As for the defense of Orlando City, underperforming is more pronounced: the team allowed 25 times, while its xGA = 19.6. As for the quality of shots, Orlando City has a slightly higher average result - xGa/Sh = 0.1.
Yes, I know that these teams have played recently, and Philadelphia Union won, but two red cards of Orlando City were very helpful. Philadelphia quite well approves itself in the championship, but here, as they say, there is something to nag at. This team (as well as Orlando City) has not the ideal defense - xGA/Sh = 0.1, while Philadelphia quite often allows strikes: Philadelphia's xGA90 is 1.3, and it is a rather weak result. At the same time, Orlando City attacks quite well (xG/Sh = 0.14; xG90 = 1.41), so it seems to me that Orlando City will be able to score at least once in the upcoming game.
Prediction for the match: Orlando City to score over 1.0 goal
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