Paraguay take on the visitors Bolivia in the round 4 match of South American qualification to the World Cup 2026. The match will be played on Wednesday, October 18th at Estadio Antonio Aranda (Ciudad del Este).
Paraguay may not have been particularly strong, but they were stable and organized, allowing them to participate in four consecutive World Cups from 1998 to 2010. They mostly reached the playoffs, and in South Africa, they even made it to the quarter-finals. However, their success has been limited to the continental level with occasional achievements such as winning the silver medal in 2011 and finishing fourth in 2015. In the last qualification, they managed to gather only a meager 16 points. In the current qualification, under Garnero's leadership, they started "according to plan" with a 0-0 draw at home against Peru and a 0-1 loss to the main underdog of the previous cycle, Venezuela. Against Argentina, after conceding in the third minute, they could only respond with a Sanabria spit at Messi.
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Bolivia traditionally sets minimal goals. The "Green" team has a unique advantage. Even teams much stronger under normal conditions struggle to catch their breath in Bolivia's high altitudes. Bolivia has reached the Copa America final twice on their home turf, winning it in 1963. In other cases, they often faced elimination after the group stage, even in the past year when the format was more lenient. They have also qualified for the World Cup three times: in 1930, 1950 without a qualification, and in 1994. In the last qualification cycle, they managed to secure four wins and 15 points—a weak but decent result for such a team. In the new qualification, they started with matches against the top favorites, resulting in a 1-5 loss to Brazil and a 0-3 defeat against Argentina. They managed to equalize against Ecuador, but they conceded the decisive goal in the 90th minute.
In the last World Cup qualification, Bolivia performed better with a 4-0 win and a 2-2 draw. However, in the Copa America, Paraguay won 3-1, mostly dominating the game. The hosts are clear favorites, but in such a match, a "total under 2.5 goals" is often a reasonable bet.
Prediction for the match: Under 2.5 scored goals.
