Oleksandriya take on the visitors Inhulets in the round 22 match of Ukrainian Premier League. The match will be played on Monday, April 24th at KSK Nika (Oleksandria).
Oleksandriya are showing fairly typical and stable results for themselves. They lose very rarely, with only 3 defeats in 20 matches. However, Alexandria has another not-so-good habit: they often play draws. In fact, they are approaching the upcoming match on a stretch of 4 draws in their last 5 games. The team's scoring efficiency dropped after the winter break, and matches involving Alexandria are now tending to Under 3.5 goals. This is because draws in the vast majority of cases end with a 1-1 or 0-0 scoreline. As for the upcoming match, the hosts are certainly the favorites, but there is not much confidence in Alexandria winning cleanly. So, it is necessary to hedge against another potential draw in their performance. It's unlikely there will be a lot of goals in this match, since Ingulets is a very dry team, and Alexandria is currently not producing high-scoring games either.
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Inhulets started the spring part of the championship energetically and was able to move away to a more or less safe distance from the relegation zone. But in the previous rounds, the picture for this team has become more typical, and Inhulets is now losing more points than gaining them. Perhaps the main distinguishing feature of Inhulets this season is their tendency towards low-scoring games. In the 21 matches involving Inhulets, the Over 3.5 total goals mark was only exceeded once. In all other cases, the games were played with fairly modest scoring. As for the upcoming match, it is certainly necessary to hedge against a draw, since Alexandria is very prone to playing out peaceful outcomes, and Inhulets, with their dry style of play, is quite capable of dragging this match to a 0-0 scoreline. Overall, the hosts are certainly the favorites here.
These teams are still from different weight categories in Ukrainian football, but Alexandria's tendency towards draws is undermining their position. Therefore, it is necessary to hedge against a draw here. My choice would be to bet on 1X+Under 3.5 goals. This is a reasonable bet, as both teams are currently not producing a lot of goals. And the representative of the top 5 will surely be closer to victory.
Prediction for the match: Oleksandriya not to lose and Under 3.5 scored goals.
