Napoli take on the visitors AC Milan in the second leg of UEFA Champions League quarterfinal match. The first leg result: 0-1. The match will be played on Tuesday, April 18th at Stadio Diego Armando Maradona (Naples).
Despite the fact that the last two encounters against Milan ended in defeats for Spalletti's team, I expect a victory for Napoli in this match. Let's forget about the first defeat right away, as the Neapolitans had already practically lost their motivation in the championship at that time. As for the second loss, which was already in the Champions League, a 0-1 result after an away game is not a verdict. Yes, the opponent eventually won, but according to the xG indicator, Spalletti's team outplayed the opponent: 1.55 versus 1.29. Napoli created significantly more chances, but their execution was lacking. Just think about the one missed opportunity by Higuain at the very beginning of the match. If the Georgian had scored then, the match would have gone according to a completely different scenario. And at the end of the game, the Neapolitans played with one man down. In general, everything was against the future Italian champions in Milan back then. Let's wait for the revenge!
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I don't want to diminish the victory of the "red and black" team. They deservedly won the first match, defended well, and used their moment wisely. But even at home, they looked noticeably weaker than their opponent. Plus, in Milan, goalkeeper Maignan caught courage, saving the team from at least a couple of goals. Playing away, the reigning champions of Italy will face much greater challenges. Even in Serie A, the team of Stefano Pioli does not look threatening on the road. In only four recent away matches in the league, Milan lost to Fiorentina (1-2) and Udinese (1-3).
Yes, the Champions League is a separate story. But nevertheless, no matter how you look at it, Napoli looks stronger than Milan overall this season. In the first match, Spalletti's team outplayed their opponent in all important indicators: 15-12 in shots, 5-2 in shots on target, and 10-3 in corners. And all of this was achieved with the support of the Milanese crowd. This time, the stands will be on the side of Napoli. This match is probably the most important of the year for them (and maybe even in the last 10 years). The coach and players of the home team understand this too. In the first match of the Champions League quarter-finals, Napoli created more chances than their opponent. And I think everyone knows the main reason for their failure - the absence of a finisher in the person of Osimhen. You can create a lot, but someone has to score. Now the team's top scorer has recovered from his injury and even played against Verona in Serie A. Napoli with the Nigerian and without him are two completely different teams. Plus, the home field advantage will not be on Milan's side this time. I strongly doubt that Pioli will manage to avoid defeat for the third time.
Prediction for the match: Napoli to win.
