Montenegro take on the visitors Bulgaria in the round 6 match of UEFA Euro-2024 qualification. The match will be played on Sunday, September 10th at Podgorica City Stadium (Podgorica).
Bookmakers are favoring Montenegro in the match against athletes from Bulgaria. It's understandable since in the first match, the brave falcons triumphed over this opponent even away from home, and now they will be playing on their own turf. However, honestly, I have absolutely no confidence in Montenegro's victory or even in them scoring two goals. Before this, at home, the brave falcons failed to score a single goal in the Euro 2024 qualification (a draw with Hungary 0-0 and a loss to Serbia 0-2). Two accurate shots against modest Lithuania are far from impressive. The hosts have issues with their attack. I believe that if they score one, they will try to control the match and take it to a safe conclusion.
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While Montenegro fought until the last second in Lithuania against the local team, Bulgaria had a calm friendly match against Iran. They didn't exert themselves too much, saving their energy for the upcoming Euro 2024 qualification match. Yes, they lost, but the Iranians did participate in the last World Cup (unlike Montenegro) and won with a score of only 0-1. I think if the lions lose in Podgorica, it will be by the same minimal margin. Bulgaria indeed has issues with their attack, but they can secure their own goal effectively. They also played a draw against Lithuania away from home (1-1) in this qualification cycle. Moreover, they took points from Serbia, conceding only once (1-1).
Both national teams are more about defense than attack. Expecting many goals in this match is not advisable. The Under 2.5 goals bet has too low odds. I suggest trying the Under 1.5 Team Goals for the home team. Yes, Montenegro scored against this opponent away from home, but it's far from certain that they will manage to do it at home at least twice. They expended too much energy a few days before this match in Lithuania. Bulgaria are not significantly inferior to the hosts in terms of quality. I wouldn't be surprised if they seek redemption for their defeat in the first round of the qualification. In three matches in this qualification cycle for Euro 2024, plus two games in the previous continental championship qualification, no one managed to score more than one goal within 90 minutes. The last battle in Montenegro even ended without any accurate shots (0-0). My prediction is that if the hosts score, it will be at most once.
Prediction for the match: Montenegro to score over 1.5 goals.
