Luxembourg take on the visitors Bosnia & Herzegovina in the round 9 match of group stage of UEFA Euro-2024 qualification. The match will be played on Thursday, November 16th at Stade de Luxembourg (Luxembourg).
Unfortunately, Luxembourg lost the decisive battle against Slovakia in the previous round of the Euro qualifying cycle. Despite dominating the match and outshooting the opponent with xG 1.13 against 0.53, the dwarf national team suffered a 0-1 defeat. Now the "Red Lions" have to wait for the Nations League, and their chances of qualifying for Euro 2024 through this qualification are practically lost, trailing Slovakia by five points in the table. However, this does not mean that Luxembourg will concede the remaining matches in the qualifiers. The team has shown progress over the past few years, competing admirably for the second spot in the group against historically more developed footballing nations. They currently sit above Bosnia and Herzegovina in the group, indicating their competitiveness. Luxembourg is not weaker than the opponent and is capable of at least avoiding defeat at home.
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Yes, in the case of a Bosnian victory, they will surpass Luxembourg in the table. However, even this will not mitigate the disappointing Euro qualifying cycle in which the national team was among the contenders for the second spot but failed to compete effectively. What can the "Blue-Yellows" boast about in this qualification? Perhaps only a home victory over Iceland in the very first match (3-0). Two wins over modest Liechtenstein (2-1 and 2-0) are certainly not a reason for pride. Apart from the battle with the group's underdog, Bosnia lost to all other opponents away: Iceland (0-1), Slovakia (0-2), Portugal (0-3). They even managed to lose to Luxembourg at home in June (0-2).
Yes, indeed, once in the current qualifying cycle, the "Red Lions" already triumphed over the opponent, and it happened on the road. Only someone completely unfamiliar with football would call that victory luck or a fluke. The Bosnians were rightfully defeated then, conceding an early goal and failing to convert a penalty in the second half, ultimately allowing a second goal. In terms of xG, Luxembourg was superior: 1.41 - 1.25. Apparently, bookmakers believe that after the defeat to the Slovaks, the hosts will be demoralized. Therefore, they offer significantly lower odds for the success of the guests. Nevertheless, the "Red Lions" are not accustomed to positive results, and every match is like a separate battle for them. I believe that Luxembourg will not lose to an opponent like Bosnia at home. The bet is 1X.
Prediction for the match: Luxembourg not to lose (1X).
