Lille take on the visitors Marseille in the round 36 match of French Ligue 1. The match will be played on Saturday, May 20th at Stade Pierre-Mauroy (Villeneuve d'Ascq).
Three rounds before the end of the championship, Lille are in fifth place in the table. It is unlikely that they will climb higher (they are five points behind Monaco), but they are only one point ahead of Rennes in sixth place. The team under Paolo Fonseca is unlikely to want to drop out of the European competition zone, so they are motivated to win their home match against Marseille. However, there are significant doubts that the hosts will be able to secure three points in this game. In the previous five Ligue 1 matches, Lille has only achieved two victories - against mid-table teams Lorient and Ajaccio, with the latter already certain to play in the second French division next season. They also dropped points not only against strong Monaco (0-0) but also against lower-ranked Auxerre (1-1). They even lost to Reims.
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Now motivated Marseille are visiting Lille. They are still competing for the silver medals of the championship and a direct ticket to the group stage of the Champions League. Marseille is just two points behind Lens in the table, occupying the third position, and in the remaining rounds, they will try to surpass their competitor. In the last ten matches of the championship, under Igor Tudor, they suffered only one defeat, against Lens. In the other ten games in this period, Marseille achieved six victories (against Rennes, Reims, Troyes, Lyon, Angers, and Auxerre) and drew against Lorient, Montpellier, and Strasbourg. I believe that in this match, Marseille is capable of adding at least one point to their tally.
We can expect an interesting match since both teams have the tournament motivation to win. My choice here is X2, the away team will not lose. Yes, Lille has an impressive record at home with 11 victories in 17 matches. However, firstly, recently they lost at home to opponents much weaker than Marseille (Brest, Lorient, Montpellier, and Ajaccio). And secondly, only PSG performs better than Marseille away from home in the current season of Ligue 1. Under Igor Tudor, in 17 away matches, Marseille has suffered only two defeats - against the country's best team in Paris and second-placed Lens. They do not lose to opponents below them in the table when playing away. In the first half of the current season, Lille lost to this opponent 1-2 away. I think that at home, Lille will squeeze out at least a draw from the match against Marseille.
Prediction for the match: Marseille not to lose (X2).
