Lazio take on the visitors AS Roma in the round 27 match of Italian Serie A. The match will be played on Sunday, February 19th at Stadio Olimpico (Rome).
Lazio footballers are not in the best mood approaching the match against their most crucial opponent. The "Eagles" lost to the Dutch AZ Alkmaar for the second time, ending their performance in European cups. The team is doing well in the country's championship, currently positioned in the top three of the table. However, even when they achieve results, Sarri's players haven't been scoring many goals recently. In the last five league matches, Lazio scored only four goals. Meanwhile, after conceding two goals against Atalanta, the "Eagles" have played four championship matches in a row without conceding a goal.
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Although Roma have conceded more goals than Lazio in the current season, they can still defend reliably. In 26 Serie A matches, only 25 goals have been scored against the team, which averages less than one goal per game. In the last nine championship matches, José Mourinho's team only scored more than two goals twice with their opponents. One of these cases was against the championship leader Napoli. Also, the over 2.5 goals bet was won when the "Wolves" surprisingly lost 1-2 to the outsider Cremonese. Moreover, the shootout with Sassuolo in the previous round was something out of the ordinary for José's team. However, they managed to play twice on under 2.5 goals (2-0 and 0-0) in the Europa League match against the strong Real Sociedad.
As for the result of this match, I am inclined to think that Roma will at least not lose. But I won't predict the outcome. Both teams played in European cups a few days before the Rome derby. Football players are not robots, and fatigue is a factor that cannot be ignored. Both teams undoubtedly want to beat their main rival. However, we are unlikely to see many goals in this match. The price of making a mistake is too high, as both Lazio and Roma are fighting for medals and a place in the Champions League zone. It's unlikely that the "Eagles" and "Wolves" will attack each other with lightning and massive attacks. Mourinho usually adopts a cautious football strategy against strong opponents. Lazio's recent low goal-scoring performance is mostly due to the injury and poor form of their main striker Immobile. In the current 26 Serie A rounds, the "Wolves" played on over 2.5 goals only 10 times, and the "Eagles" only 11 times. The first-round match between the two main representatives of the Italian capital in world football ended with Lazio's minimal 1-0 victory. I think the under 2.5 goals bet will come into play in the Rome derby this time.
Prediction for the match: Under 2.5 scored goals.