HIFK hosts HJK in round 14 of Finnish Veikkausliiga. The match will be played on Thursday, July 4th at Telia 5G-Areena (Helsinki)
HIFK is now in quite a good shape (2 wins and 4 draws in 6 recent matches), but these results do not cancel the overall picture - the team goes through points, even being in eighth place. The simplest thing we can look at is the difference between goals conceded and xGD (the expected goal difference based on xG and xGA) of HIFK it is 4.3. This suggests that HIFK will overperform at a distance. At the same time, HIFK is lucky both in attack and in defense: the team scored 10 goals with xG of 8.1 and conceded 9 with xGA of 11.5. Thus, we can conclude that HIFK is simply in a dreadful situation (the team is earning more points than it deserves, but at the same time, it is in eighth place. I also want to note that HIFK is in the last place of the league in terms of its own shots’ quality (xG/Sh is 0.07), and in terms of the allowed shots’ quality (xGA/Sh), the team is ahead only of outsiders (6-7 places with 0.1).
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As for HJK, it is the most unlucky team in the Finnish Championship: its GD-xGD is -8.7. HJK scored only 15 goals with xG of 22.1; the team allowed 15 balls, although its xGA is only 13.4. HJK has no luck this season. Such a wild underperforming often comes bundled with poor conversion, but, fortunately, such teams often go through. Vivid examples are Atalanta and Valencia. Both teams were not lucky for a long time, but then everything returned to normal, and anomalies in the conversion were gone, so we will see both Valencia and Atalanta in the Champions League group stage in autumn. In this situation, it remains only to wish the management of HJK to be patient and not make hysterical decisions (hello, Florentino Perez). HJK attacks well: in terms of the own shots’ quality, the team ranks second in the league (xG / Sh = 0.13), and in terms of the allowed shots’ quality, it also takes the lead (xGA / Sh = 0.08).
Therefore, personally, I have no doubt that HJK will be able to succeed in the upcoming match. The team ranks above HIFK, and as we see, it is much ahead in terms of the game quality. You may try to invent a bet relating to individual scoring, but I chose the option that is a little less risky.
Prediction for the match: HJK to win
