Gremio take on the visitors Flamengo in the round 29 match of Brazilian Serie A. The match will be played on Thursday, October 26th at Arena do Grêmio (Porto Alegre).
I absolutely disagree with the bookmakers who offer much lower odds on the away team's victory in this match compared to the home team's success. Yes, Gremio are six points behind their opponents in the table because they only earned one point in their last four championship matches. But let's not just look at the standings; there's more to it. In three of these matches, the musketeers played away, and away games are their weakest point. However, this season, Gremio's players are almost unbeatable at home. A recent loss to Atletico Paranaense was only their second defeat in 14 home matches in Serie A for the team under Renato Gaucho. In the other 12 matches, they won ten times and drew twice.
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Flamengo, based on the recent results of the championship matches, seems to be in good form with three wins and two draws. But, once again, it's not all that simple. Who did the vultures earn points against in these matches? - Bahia, Cruzeiro Mineiro, Corinthians, Goias, and Vasco da Gama. All the listed teams are ranked consecutively from 13th to 17th place in the table and are fighting for survival in Serie A. Yes, points against any opponent are valuable, but it's not advisable to overestimate Flamengo after successful matches against such opponents. Before their undefeated streak, the red and black, for example, were crushed by Atletico Paranaense at home (0-3).
Considering everything said above, I'll summarize my thought - I don't consider the guests as favorites in this match. In my opinion, it's a three-outcome game, in which it's quite reasonable to cover two of them with the 1X bet at a decent odds. I wouldn't be surprised even if the hosts win here. Lately, Flamengo indeed had weaker opponents, including in away matches when they drew only with modest Goias (0-0) and Corinthians (1-1). What worries me more is not Gremio's poor streak in the championship, but three consecutive losses to this opponent in 2023 (including cup matches). However, any trend in head-to-head meetings, as you know, is eventually broken. First, the musketeers lost 0-3, then 0-2, and in the most recent rendezvous, it was only 0-1. Now it's time to at least secure a draw in the battle against Flamengo. And at home, where the team hardly loses in the championship, Gremio's players are quite capable of this.
Prediction for the match: Gremio not to lose (1X).
