Greece hosts Italy in round 3 of Euro Qualification. The match will be played on Saturday, June 8th at Olympic Stadium of Athens "Spiros Louis" (Athens)
Greece faltered under the pressure of Bosnia but managed to win back after a red card of the opponent. Thus, the Greeks earned 4 points and settled down on the 2nd line. The task in the match with the Italians is simple - to play reliably in defense. And the Greeks know how to do it. The team rarely fails in defense at home. Only 2 goals conceded in the last 7 matches in Greece. In the previous qualifying campaign for the World Cup, the Greeks only faltered under the pressure of Belgium; in the other 5 home games, they allowed only 1 goal. Gradually, the Greeks overcame the crisis of 2014, when they lost even to the Faroe Islands.
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The Italians started confidently, earning 6 points. However, they should not flatter yourself. The hammering defeat of Liechtenstein is not surprising, but in the match with the Finns, Squadra Azzurra experienced problems. All the same – bad conversion and a small number of goal attempts. Mancini has not yet managed to arrange a game in the attack. The squad is very effective one: Immobile, Insigne, top scorer of Serie A Quagliarella, but the scoring is extremely low. It is not far to seek: the Italians were mediocre in the attack in the Nations League games. Only 2 goals scored in 4 matches, and one of them was scored from the penalty spot. Moreover, the men of Mancini failed to score in the matches against Portugal, which plays in an organized manner in defense.
Should we wait for scoring football in a duel between Greece and Italy? It is unlikely. Under 2.5 goals scored was recorded in 6 of the last 8 official games of the hosts. It is not surprising that the Greeks score very little in their field (only 2 goals in 3 matches of the Nations). It is hard to imagine how the Greeks would break through the defense of Italy led by Chiellini by using their banal long balls into the penalty area. Squadra Azzurra conceded only 2 goals in the last 6 official matches, while holding back attacks of the Poles and the Portuguese. But the visitors themselves are not very effective. Largely, there have been no significant changes since the Italians failed to cope with the Swedes in the playoffs for promotion to the World Cup (they didn’t even score in those 2 meetings). The Italians are still able to squeeze an opponent to the box, but it does not bring dividends. Squadra Azzurra will find it difficult to score even purely defensive Greece.
Prediction for the match: Italy to win with +0.5 handicap and Under 2.5 goals scored