Flamengo takes on Gremio in Brazilian Serie A – Round 36. The game will be played on Thursday, November 22nd at Maracana (Rio de Janeiro).
Currently Flamengo holds the second position. They moved there thanks to the latest fail of Inter and their own win over Sport Recife (the match in which half of the second period they played in ten and still managed to squeeze on the opponent scoring a single goal). Their score difference with the leading Palmeiras is five points, and there are three more rounds to go. One can hardly imagine that in these circumstances Palmeiras will lose two matches of three, but anything might happen – the leader has to play against underdogs fighting for survival, and such teams are known to be two times more dangerous.
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Gremio now shares the fourth and the fifth positions with Sao Paulo, and the holder of the fourth position qualifies for CONMEBOL Libertadores. According to additional indicators, Gremio is presently ahead of its opponent, but the upcoming match may change it all. If Flamengo don’t get enough points there, they may not dream of any champion’s title. What makes things worse is that they may also miss their great chance to get to the CONMEBOL Libertadores, as their difference with Gremio is four positions now, and if the visiting team wins, the difference will be minimal. Still, this win is highly unlikely. The Urubu had only two home defeats and two home draws in this championship. They already had a home win over Gremio this season. Speaking of their last championship performance, they also won Gremio at home. At this, Gremio got only two away victories in the last six matches, these being over Fluminense, holding the thirteenth position, and Atletico Mineiro, being the leader of outsiders; so Gremio is very unlikely to beat the ruling Flamengo.
In the last 20 face-offs, the opponents scored over three goals only three times. In this championship, Gremio never played over 3.5 goals away, Flamengo played over 3.5 goals home only once, though that was a match against the weak Sport Recife wherein they beat it 4:1. Gremio is not an outsider, and most likely it will never give the opponent a chance to score so many goals. Thus, the second team in the general standings and the third one according to home play indicators will not lose at home once again, and the opponents will not manage to make over three goals.
Prediction for the match: Flamengo to win with +0.5 handicap and under 3.5 scored goals.
