Finland take on the visitors Kazakhstan in the round 8 match of group stage of UEFA Euro-2024 qualification. The match will be played on Tuesday, October 17th at Helsinki Olympic Stadium (Helsinki).
Losing to Slovenia away 0-3, the Finnish footballers fell four points behind them and Denmark in the table. However, their chances of qualifying for the Euro have not diminished. They have three matches ahead in which the Owls have the potential to accumulate nine points. It's true that their competitors would need to drop points as well, but we won't focus on that for now. In the match against Kazakhstan, bookmakers have the home team as clear favorites. But is that really the case? Apart from their overwhelming victory over San Marino, Finland has only managed to win by a margin of two goals once in this qualification cycle (2-0 against Slovenia, as mentioned). In both matches against Denmark, the national team lost, but they secured victories against Kazakhstan and Northern Ireland with minimal scores.
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Kazakhstan won't be an easy opponent for Finland. The Hawks also still have a chance to compete for the second spot in the table at the very least. Counting them out would be unwise. They did suffer a loss to Denmark last week (1-3), but firstly, that's Denmark, the bronze medalist from the last Euro. Secondly, this loss was the first for Kazakhstan in the current qualification cycle with a margin of more than one goal. Before that, the Hawks lost to Finland (0-1) and Slovenia (1-2) and managed to defeat Northern Ireland twice (both times with a score of 1-0). They also sensationally defeated the Danes (3-2). Let's not dwell on their match with the group's underdog San Marino. The upcoming away team is a strong national squad that can put up a fight against Finland even on foreign soil.
In my opinion, these are two teams of roughly equal strength. I agree that Finland is probably the favorites in their home match. However, not to the extent of giving them odds of 1.49 for a victory, while the odds for Kazakhstan (+1.5) are 1.53. Underestimating the Kazakhstan footballers, who have performed quite admirably in this Euro qualification cycle, is unwise. Yes, they lost at home to Finland in September, but only by a score of 0-1. With the same score, Finland was stronger than the Hawks in their match on their home turf in the World Cup 2022 qualification. I believe that a positive handicap for Kazakhstan can yield a profit, and if the hosts do win, it will likely be by a margin of no more than one goal.
Prediction for the match: Kazakhstan to win with +1.5 handicap.
