Denmark take on the visitors Slovenia in the round 9 match of group stage of UEFA Euro-2024 qualification. The match will be played on Friday, November 17th at Parken Stadium (Copenhagen).
After eight rounds of the Euro qualifying cycle, there is little doubt that the bronze medalists of the last European Championship will make it there. Yes, the qualification journey for the Danish national team was not perfect. Occasionally, Denmark could afford to experiment and drop points in away games, such as playing to a draw in Slovenia or even losing to Kazakhstan. However, in the six remaining qualifying matches, the "Red and White" secured six victories with a total score of 14-4. They defeated Finland and San Marino twice each, were stronger than Northern Ireland once, and avenged their away loss to Kazakhstan. The only team the Danes haven't beaten so far is Slovenia, and I believe this omission will be corrected, considering that in home matches during the Euro 2024 qualification, Kasper Hjulmand's team has not dropped any points.
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If for Denmark, stumbling in two out of eight qualification matches is considered instability, then for Slovenia, a similar statistic indicates a superbly conducted qualification cycle. Matjaz Kek's team, like their opponents, is already halfway to the European Championship. Essentially, even a defeat against the Danes won't be a catastrophe for Slovenia. They just need to avoid losing at home to Kazakhstan in the final match. Of course, the guests will try to secure points in Copenhagen, but it's unlikely they will succeed. Like Denmark, Slovenia has not suffered a defeat at home in the current qualifiers. However, the team did experience one loss away, falling to Finland (0-2). Even in the home match against Denmark, Slovenia did not deserve a final draw (1-1), as the opponent was superior in terms of xG with 1.51 against 0.59.
With absolutely identical point tallies, wins, draws, losses, and goals scored, the opponents approach this match evenly. The only difference is that the Danes conceded one more goal. "Equal opponents," you might say? I won't argue with that, but I still give my preference to the hosts. Firstly, no matter how you look at it, the bronze medalists from the last Euro appear stronger in terms of squad quality. Secondly, let's not forget about the home field advantage. In the current qualification cycle, the Danes only win on their turf. Meanwhile, Slovenia suffered its only defeat in the Euro qualification away, managing only a draw at home against Denmark. I don't think they will get more than that on the road. My prediction is 2 (Away Win).
Prediction for the match: Denmark to win.
