Dandenong Thunder take on the visitors North Geelong in the round 22 match of Australian NPL Victoria. The match will be played on Saturday, June 15th.
Dandenong Thunder are objectively considered the favorite in the match against the worst team in the championship. However, there is absolutely no certainty that the hosts will keep a clean sheet. In their last five matches, the Thunder managed to preserve their goal untouched only once. The results of the remaining four league matches in this period include a draw against Bentleigh Greens (1-1) and defeats against South Melbourne (1-2), Altona Magic (0-3), and Avondale FC (1-5). Overall, in the current season, Dandenong Thunder has conceded 41 goals in 21 rounds, which speaks to the team's defensive vulnerabilities.
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North Geelong Warriors sit at the bottom of the NPL Victoria table with 13 points. However, they are only one point away from the 12th place, which would secure their spot in the league. The fight for survival is still ahead. They simply need to give their maximum effort in each of the remaining regular season matches. I don't know if the visitors will create a mini-sensation in this match by taking points from the favorites, but they are certainly capable of scoring a goal. In their last four championship matches, North Geelong Warriors failed to score only against Melbourne Knights. However, they managed to upset Green Gully (1-3), Yarra Jets (2-1), and Moreland City (1-0).
Despite the fact that the hosts are clear favorites and are likely to secure three points, I personally have no certainty that their victory will come easily and by a significant margin. Therefore, I am hesitant to speculate on the handicap. Instead, I would focus on the goal by the away team at the modest odds of 1.5. Dandenong Thunder's defense is far from perfect, as they have struggled to keep clean sheets recently. On the other hand, North Geelong Warriors have started scoring goals more consistently. The two teams have already played against each other in the current regular season, with no surprises as the Thunder emerged victorious even away from home, but they conceded once (2-1).
Prediction for the match: North Geelong to score – yes.