Curacao take on the visitors Panama in the round 3 match of CONCACAF Nations League. The match will be played on Saturday, October 14th at Stadion Ergilio Hato (Willemstad).
Due to their recent successes, the modest Curacao national team is ranked 90th in the FIFA rankings, which is a quite good result for this team. However, their results have predictably declined, and they've been losing positions in the rankings. Before the start of the group stage of the Nations League, they suffered defeat after defeat in their matches. In two matches in the tournament itself, the Curacao team showed decent football, but they lost both times, with identical 0-1 scores to representatives of Trinidad and Tobago and even Martinique. I believe that they have little chance in the match against the strong Panama team.
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We witnessed Panama's peak when they qualified for the 2018 World Cup in Russia. Even now, by the standards of their continent, Panama is a quite strong national team, if not at the top, then very close to it. They are currently ranked 45th in the FIFA rankings and are considered one of the main favorites to win the Nations League Division A. In the tournament, Panama started with a convincing victory over Martinique (3-0). In the second group stage match, they should have won as well, taking an early lead against Guatemala. However, they started playing defensively too early and ended up conceding in the middle of the second half (1-1).
These national teams are simply on different levels. So, I am slightly surprised by the high odds for the favorite to win. Panama is objectively stronger than their opponent, has been performing better lately, and is ranked much higher. A draw with Guatemala is a rare exception for them. They usually only don't win or lose in matches against top-level national teams like Mexico or the USA. Curacao's players have suffered seven defeats in their last eight matches. They only managed not to lose in regular time to the modest St. Kitts and Nevis (1-1 draw and a loss in a penalty shootout). My prediction for this match is W2 (Panama win). I hope there won't be any surprises regarding the match outcome.
Prediction for the match: Panama to win.
