Cuiaba take on the visitors Cruzeiro in the round 26 match of Brazilian Serie A. The match will be played on Sunday, October 15th at Arena Pantanal (Cuiabá).
It seemed like not too long ago, Cuiabá was one of the main underdogs in the Brazilian Serie A, struggling in the lower part of the table and at most aiming to fight for survival. However, the Goldens managed to shake things up, pull themselves together, and as a result, they are currently positioned 11th, competing for a spot in the South American Cup. Much of Cuiabá's improvement can be attributed to their enhanced defense. They still concede goals against strong opponents, but not as many. In the last seven rounds of the championship, the Goldens only had two matches with Over 2.5 goals. I doubt that the battle against Cruzeiro will feature entertaining football with plenty of goals.
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That's because the Foxes are, in fact, a team of the same level as the hosts. They are positioned slightly lower in the table than the Goldens but are only two points behind. Cruzeiro's defense is also not flawless; it occasionally falters, and in matches against top teams, this team can concede quite a few goals. However, when facing opponents of a similar class, they usually play solid defense. But recently, Cruzeiro have struggled to score goals - in the last eight rounds of the championship, they scored only five times. In three out of the previous four away matches in Serie A, they failed to find the net. Similarly to Cuiabá, Over 2.5 goals were only scored in two out of the last six matches involving Minas Gerais players in the league.
The opponents are of roughly the same level, so it's not easy to pick a match winner. Yes, Cuiabá have the home field advantage, and most likely, they won't lose. But there is no strong confidence in a home victory. I'll probably settle for a modest and straightforward bet - Under 2.5 goals, as I don't believe there will be an abundance of goals in this match. In 25 rounds of the championship, Cuiabá, along with their opponents, had Over 2.5 goals in just 10 matches, while the players from Cruzeiro made it in only eight matches. The head-to-head meetings between the Goldens and the Foxes have not yielded even two exact shots per game. In the current season, the teams crossed paths only once, and in that game, the fate was decided by a single goal. I believe something similar in terms of goal-scoring will happen this time. If you think the odds for Under 2.5 goals are too low, you can consider combining it with 1X, for example. The odds will be higher (above 2.0).
Prediction for the match: Under 2.5 scored goals.
