Braunschweig take on the visitors St. Pauli in the round 5 match of German Bundesliga 2. The match will be played on Friday, September 1st at Eintracht-Stadion (Braunschweig).
Eintracht Braunschweig have only gathered three points from the first four rounds and currently sits in 16th place in the overall team standings. The Lions started the championship with two consecutive minimal defeats against Karlsruher (0:1) and Magdeburg (1:2), followed by another setback in a cup match against Schalke (1:3). Then, under the guidance of Michael Schiele, they surprisingly defeated Schalke (1:0) on their home turf, but that was within the context of the championship. However, in the last round, everything fell into place as Eintracht predictably lost to Karlsruher (0:2) on the road. The match outcome was quite expected since the Lions did not manage to make a single shot on target throughout the entire game.
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St. Pauli, after four matches, has accumulated six points and currently occupies the ninth position. The Pirates are among the three teams that haven't suffered a loss at the start of the season. Paradoxically, after their victory in the first round against Kaiserslautern (2:1), Fabian Hürzeler's team played out three goalless draws (0:0) against Fortuna, Greuther Fürth, and Magdeburg, with two out of these three matches being played at home. The most dramatic, in my opinion, was their clash in the previous round against Magdeburg. Throughout the match, St. Pauli attacked, pressed, and created numerous goal-scoring opportunities (xG: 2.58), but a catastrophic lack of luck and finishing issues prevented them from finding the back of the net even once.
In this matchup, despite three consecutive draws, St. Pauli still remains the favorite for several reasons, and this is quite justified. Eintracht Braunschweig currently appears weak in all areas, and their victory against Schalke seems more like an exception rather than a rule. Meanwhile, the issues of the Pirates are temporary in nature, in my opinion. Unlike their opponent, St. Pauli consistently generates scoring chances in each match but, as I mentioned before, their luck in the finishing phase hasn't been favorable. If this trend continues, sooner or later, Hürzeler's team will break through. This is an evident fact even in terms of probability theory. I'm not sure if it will happen in this particular match, so I suggest opting for a cautious bet, such as the away team not losing with a total of goals scored less than 4.5. Prediction: X2 + Under 4.5 total goals.
Prediction for the match: St. Pauli not to lose and Under 4.5 scored goals.
