Botafogo RJ hosts Gremio in round 9 of Brazilian Serie A. The match will be played on Thursday, June 13th at Estadio Olimpico Nilton Santos (Rio de Janeiro)
Botafogo gained 5 wins in 8 championship rounds. The club played 4 of them in the home field and won 3 of those home matches. It lost only to the reigning champion and the leader of the current championship Palmeiras. The latter apparently still did not realize that the last championship was already over, and a new one started. Palmeiras just smashes everyone in a row without losing any match in the championship and winning 7 out of 8 matches, so that Botafogo’s defeat in that game is generally forgivable.
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Gremio started in the tournament extremely unsuccessfully. The team earned only 8 points in 8 rounds, having lost half of the matches and having gained only 2 wins. In the last match, Gremio scored one of these 2 victories. But firstly, it happened at home. Secondly, the goal was scored in the 90th minute. Thirdly, not Gremio scored, but it was an own goal of Fortaleza.
It is rather strange to see such odds in the match of the 4th team playing at home against an opponent from almost the bottom. Gremio is on the 13th line. In addition, Botafogo lost to Gremio in just 4 of the last 16 home matches. As for Fogao, it won 8 games. The hosts did not lose in the last 4 matches of upcoming rivals in Rio de Janeiro and won 3 times. So why should Botafogo lose, given the above fixtures of the teams in the current championship? I do not know what the trick is and what the bookmakers’ distrust to the home team is based on, but let’s look at the available data. In addition to all the troubles of Gremio at the start of the championship, the leader of the attack, Everton, left for the national team. Therefore, Botafogo is able at least not to lose. This team is exclusively home one, and it lost only to the champion and the current leader in this championship. As for the past tournament, Botafogo lost only 2 times at home, and Gremio was not in that list of winners. And it is unlikely to win this match either.
Prediction for the match: Botafogo RJ to win with +0.5 handicap
