Belenenses hosts Vitoria Guimaraes in round 26 of Portuguese Primeira Liga. The match will be played on Thursday, June 11th at Estádio Nacional do Jamor (Lisbon - Oeiras)
Belenenses is in the middle of the standings and is unlikely to leave the country's main football league. Well, the team is also unlikely to qualify for places in the Euro cup zone and medals. But it may well spoil the mood and take points from leaders or teams that claim to take high places. Belenenses has never lost in the last five matches, thus ensuring a stable place in the middle of the tournament standings. In my opinion, bookmakers underestimate the team at this time, considering the visitors the clear favorites.
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Vitoria Guimaraes continues the struggle for high places in the championship. To be more precise, it fights for a place in the Europa League and, possibly, for bronze. There are five more points to the fourth place, and it is quite realistic to win back such a gap in the remaining matches. Well, the third place is 8 points ahead, and the team has a chance to take it, albeit it is small. In the last round, Vitoria had to fight with the main competitor for 4th place, Sporting Lisbon. The hosts did not give up in the match that turned out to be unsuccessful and managed to turn the tide of the game. They brought the match to a draw and thus did not allow the competitor to create separation in the standings. But now Guimaraes will play away, and it will not be easy to earn points in the match with unyielding Belenenses.
Bookmakers believe in Guimaraes. Is it a deserved opinion? I don’t think so. Firstly, anything can happen after such a forced break, and we often see surprises in many championships. Secondly, head-to-head meetings have such a feature: historically, the home team has not lost for a very long time. Since 2015, the hosts have won in most cases (there were nine matches), and some matches ended in a draw. The visitors will have to play with an eye on their net since the price of a mistake is high. Given the circumstances and the peculiarities of head-to-head meetings, I decided to bet on the plus handicap of the hosts. And the coefficients for such a bet are quite acceptable.
Prediction for the match: Belenenses to win with +1.0 handicap
