Barcelona hosts Valencia in round 4 of Spanish LaLiga. The match will be played on Saturday, September 14th at Camp Nou (Barcelona)
Barcelona did not start the season very well: after three matches, Ernesto Valverde's team has only 4 points - a defeat to Athletic Bilbao, a victory over Betis and a draw with Osasuna. I think that Barcelona deserved this beginning - Valverde has many unresolved problems. The last match against Osasuna cannot be called good for Barcelona because the team from Pamplona created a lot of problems for Blaugranas, and the fixture of expected goals also reflects it: Osasuna won 1.72: 0.33 - as if some kind of grandee dragged the middle-class team (Osasuna acted as a grandee). Osasuna had a 3:0 advantage in terms of obvious goal attempts (two goals and Brandon Lyamas's header). Barcelona is approaching matches against Valencia and Borussia Dortmund in bad condition.
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Valencia is also not convincing so far. Let’s take a look at each of their matches: in the game against Real Sociedad, Valencia created a little more goal attempts. In the second round, Valencia lost to Celta (yes, that same Celta, which created only 1 obvious goal attempt in the match with Sevilla, shot twice on target and scored 1 goal - good efficiency, but more like a break-off). The game with the newcomer of LaLiga, Mallorca, did not go very smoothly for the Bats either: yes, Valencia won in terms of expected goals (2.14: 1.17) and obvious goal attempts (3:2), but it scored two goals from the penalty spot, i.e. Mallorca won in terms of the expected goals excluding penalties (NPxG). Mallorca also won in terms of obvious goal attempts excluding penalties.
The Barcelona-Valencia match can be called the top one, though both teams are problematic: Valverde has to solve a lot of problems related to the placement of attacking players, and Valencia has problems in defense - 8 goals were allowed in 3 rounds. It is strange for the team, which has one of the best positional defenses in Spain. In the last season, there was a 2-2 draw at Camp Nou, where Valencia even was ahead (2-0). I expect something similar in the upcoming match as well - such analogies can be drawn. Although the teams have changed quite well, the game systems have remained similar to last year. I think that it’s worth waiting for an exchange of goals - the defense of Valencia and Barcelona is rather weak. Barcelona should score under such a scenario, but I also believe in the goal of Valencia: even if the system sometimes fails, the performers in the attack do what is needed. Therefore, my prediction is Both to Score - Yes.
Prediction for the match: Both teams to score - yes
