Atletico Mineiro hosts Union La Calera in the second leg of South American Copa Sudamericana 1/16 finals. The match will be played on Wednesday, May 29th at Estádio Raimundo Sampaio (Belo Horizonte)
Culpi left his successor on the coaching bridge of Atletico Mineiro, Santana, the only chance in the failed group of Copa Libertadores. There was no chance to advance to the playoffs, but Galo beat Zamora away (1:2) and received a place in the second most important continental tournament, Copa Sudamericana.
The victory in Venezuela became the fourth in a row for Atletico. The shakeup of the team associated with the change of coach came off. In the starting Serie A, the team from Minas won Avai at home and beat Ceara and Vasco away (with the same 2:1 score). This allowed Galo to become one of the leaders of the competition, though not for long. The home matches with top competitors didn’t end well for Atletico. The loss to Palmeiras (0: 2) was followed by a goalless draw with Santos. However, Atletico beat Flamengo in the third consecutive home game (with a 2:1 score again), and this result allowed Galo to outrank Sao Paulo and Santos, which also misfired.
Having eliminated from Copa Libertadores, Atletico had no choice but to determine the fight for the champion’s title in Serie A as the priority. Perhaps, if we look back at the squad and shape of Scolari’s team, it was rude to say, but Atletico will fight for places in the CL zone for sure. In any case, it will do it before the beginning of the key stages of Sudamericana, where Galo will have much stronger rivals than Chilean Union La Calera.
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It was the priority of the meeting with Gremio in Serie A that made Santana send the reserve squad to Chile. The underestimation of the opponent played a dirty trick on Galo. Atletico lost the first match in La Calera (1-0) and did not win in Porto Alegre (1-0). I want to believe that this lesson will serve the young coach the good turn. Having not gained the reinforcement before the start of the season, Galo has a well-knit but objectively only one competitive lineup. Therefore, the coach should be very competent in the rotation and determine what is more important for the club. The victory in Sudamericana will insure Atletico in terms of the participation in Copa Libertadores, and it will allow the team to earn money.
Santana will radically change the situation, compared with the away match against the Chileans. Galo wants to advance to the next round, and the management appealed to the confederation with a request to relocate the match from Mineirao to Independencia. The state stadium is good, but Atletico plays more confidently and better in the native field. Technical advantage will be solidified by quality. Santana promised to field the strongest squad of the Alvinegro, including Elias, who is disqualified in Brasileiro, and even back Rever with a healing broken nose. An experienced defender can play in the mask.
Of course, the defense is not the problem of Galo. In the last five games, Atletico has scored only 2 goals. However, the return of Elias will strengthen the pivot zone; therefore, feeling support behind the backs, Chara with Cazares, Luan and Oliveira can exert greater pressure on the defense of the visitors. Indeed, the minimum victory will lead the teams only to a penalty shootout.
The refined squad of Union is no match for that one that received a ticket to Sudamericana in the debut season in Primera. So far the Cementeros manage to keep afloat (4th place), but the gap to the leader is already 8 points. Of course, the strength of the Chilean and Brazilian championships should not be compared. In the first round, Union knocked out an outsider of the Brazilian Serie A Chapecoense with great difficulty. Actually, it is a weak team by the standards of Brasileiro.
On Saturday, Meneghini, an Argentine coach of Union, did not rotate the line-up, wanting to reduce the gap to the leaders in the local championship. However, the Reds did not cope with weak Antofogasta away (1:1). The visitors opened the score and even could increase the advantage against the opponent, who was left with ten men by the referee. Monreal did not convert a penalty, and Antofogasta scored before the final whistle. Union was in a similar situation with Galo, but not a home match with the support of fans, but a very difficult trip to Minas awaits for La Calera now.
The away fixtures of the Cementeros are much worse than home ones. Given that Union played not with the top rivals in the away games of Primera, the team of Meneghini won only 1 time (1-4-2), scoring only 6 goals in seven voyages and conceding 7. The Argentinean relies on defense, but the one-goal advantage of the first match is unsteady, so I will not believe in the ability of a lower-quality Chilean squad.
Atletico is stronger than the visitors in all respects, and the favorite of the return match is more than obvious. However, the victory of the hosts has very boring odds.
Prediction for the match: Atletico-MG to advance to the next round
