Atletico Madrid take on the visitors Osasuna in the round 35 match of Spanish LaLiga. The match will be played on Sunday, May 21st at Metropolitano Stadium (Madrid).
Atletico Madrid have been conceding goals in the league for seven consecutive rounds. However, the odds for Osasuna not scoring are even lower than for just one goal potentially going into the mattress-makers' net. This indicates that bookmakers believe it's time for Diego Simeone's team to keep a clean sheet and they approach this bet cautiously. I agree with them and will take the risk of betting on the absence of goals from the visitors. Despite Atletico regularly conceding goals recently, they average fewer goals per game throughout the season (27 goals in 34 matches). In terms of defensive reliability, Atletico is still second in the league, with only Barcelona conceding fewer goals.
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Osasuna are a solid mid-table team in La Liga, currently in eighth place in the standings, and theoretically competing for a spot in the Conference League zone. However, recently their matches against top teams in Spanish football have not been going well for Jagoba Arrasate's side. It's one thing to score three goals at home against modest Almeria, and it's quite another to score against Jan Oblak's goal in Madrid. Although Osasuna managed to score against another team from the capital in the country's cup final, they failed to find the back of the net in their last two matches against top-4 teams in the La Liga table. They lost with a clean sheet to both Barcelona (0-1) and Real Sociedad (0-2). I don't think the guests will be able to score against Atletico either.
After the sensational defeat to Elche in the previous round, the mattress-makers are obliged to redeem themselves in front of their fans and secure three points in a home match against a mid-table team. I'm reluctant to bet on a handicap in favor of the hosts because the visitors know how to make matches low-scoring, including against top opponents. However, I simply don't believe in Osasuna scoring a goal. Their attack hasn't inspired confidence recently, and overall this season, the team cannot be considered highly productive. In 34 La Liga rounds, they have scored only 32 goals, averaging less than a goal per game. It's about time for the hosts to finally keep a clean sheet, and Osasuna is a suitable opponent for that. In their last two direct encounters, Atletico came out on top away from home with 1-0 and 3-0 victories. In their most recent meeting at Atletico's home ground, Atletico also won without conceding (1-0). My prediction is that Osasuna won't score!
Prediction for the match: Osasuna to score – no.
