Atletico Madrid take on the visitors Lazio in the round 6 match of UEFA Champions League group stage. The match will be played on Wednesday, December 13th at Metropolitano Stadium (Madrid).
Atlético are having an excellent season. In the Champions League, they haven't dropped a single point, securing victories against Feyenoord (3-2) and Celtic (6-0). They also defeated the Dutch side away in the previous round (3-1). While they were expected to triumph over Lazio in Rome, a miraculous goal from the Italian goalkeeper prevented that. In their domestic league, Simeone's team is doing well, with three wins in the last four matches. They did suffer a defeat against Barcelona away (0-1), but at home in La Liga, Atlético have won all eight matches, including victories against Champions League participants Real Madrid (3-1) and Real Sociedad (1-0).
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On the other hand, Lazio haven't been impressive in the current Champions League campaign. They won at home against expected opponents like Celtic (2-0) and Feyenoord (1-0), and also secured a victory away against the Scots (2-1). However, they suffered a defeat away against Feyenoord (1-3) and narrowly escaped a loss at home against Atlético in the opening group stage match. In Serie A, Lazio recent victories haven't been very convincing, with narrow 1-0 wins against newly-promoted Genoa and Cagliari in December. In the last league match, they only managed a draw against Verona (1-1), and earlier, under Maurizio Sarri's guidance, suffered defeats against Bologna (0-1) and Salernitana (1-2).
If this battle for the top spot in the group took place 8-10 years ago, it would be rational to consider that Atlético might play for a draw. However, Diego Simeone's team now employs a completely different attacking style, focusing on an offensive approach without relying on defensive tactics. Therefore, in this confrontation, a fierce battle is expected, and I'm betting on the Spaniards because they are simply stronger at the moment. Atlético should comfortably win even in Rome, as indicated by expected goals (xG) statistics, where they had a better xG of 0.93 against 0.61 for their opponents. Provvedel's heroics have already entered history, and it's unlikely that Lazio's goalkeeper can become the hero of the match against Atlético for the second time in two games. My prediction is a home win - 1. No need to reinvent the wheel here.
Prediction for the match: Atletico Madrid to win.
