Athletic Bilbao take on the visitors Elche in the round 37 match of Spanish LaLiga. The match will be played on Sunday, May 28th at Estadio San Mamés (Bilbao).
In the previous round, Athletic lost 0-2 to Osasuna, allowing them to surpass Athletic and take the seventh position in the table. Now it will be very challenging for the Basques to secure a spot in the European competitions since after their match against the underdog Elche, they will have an away game at the Santiago Bernabeu. Osasuna, on the other hand, still has matches against Getafe and Girona. I don't think we will see players from Bilbao in the Champions League next season, but that's not the topic of discussion right now. Yes, the hosts are clear favorites in the match against modest Elche. However, I highly doubt they will convincingly defeat their opponents in terms of the scoreline. In the last seven La Liga matches, Ernesto Valverde's team has only managed to secure one victory, and even that was with a one-goal difference. Home matches haven't been a strong point for Athletic this season either, as they have only covered the -1.5 handicap in one out of their last five.
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It may seem that Elche are no longer motivated in terms of the tournament and is just waiting for the season to end. However, in the last five La Liga matches, Sebastian Beka's team has collected 8 points, which is the third-highest tally for the team throughout the championship. During this period, they defeated Rayo Vallecano (4-0) and Atletico Madrid (1-0), drew with Sevilla and Getafe with a score of 1-1. They only lost to Almeria away, and even then, it was with a score of 1-2. I believe that if Elche loses to Athletic, it will be by a one-goal margin, no more.
There is no doubt that the hosts are clear favorites in this match and should take all three points. However, Athletic has weakened significantly towards the end of the season, while Elche has surprisingly improved and hardly loses. Therefore, I'm willing to take a risk and bet on Elche with a handicap of +1.5 for a good coefficient. This handicap has failed to play out for Elche in only one of their last five matches in the league. On the other hand, Athletic's players have only managed to secure one victory with a difference of more than one goal in the last 10 La Liga rounds. The two previous meetings between the teams at Athletic's field ended in defeats for the visitors, but with a scoreline of 1-2 and 0-1. I expect something similar to happen now.
Prediction for the match: Elche to win with +1.5 handicap.
