Atalanta take on the visitors Udinese in the round 23 match of Italian Serie A. The match will be played on Saturday, February 4th at Gewiss Stadium (Bergamo).
Atalanta have been playing inconsistently this season, but they continue to fight for a spot in the Champions League and a medal in Serie A. Currently, they are sixth in the table, but the gap between them and the fifth spot is only four points. This can easily be overcome by avoiding mistakes in matches against mid-table and lower-ranked teams. Udinese are just such a mid-table team right now. In their last three home matches in the league, Atalanta won two - against Salernitana (8-2) and Sampdoria (2-0) - but suffered an unexpected loss to Lecce (1-2). However, it's unlikely that Gasperini's team will falter again for a second time in a row.
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Regression to the mean is what happened to Udinese, whose play we all admired at the start of the season. In the previous 16 rounds of the league, Andrea Sottile's players only managed to win one game and suffered six losses. Yes, they put up a fight against top teams on their home field, but they look terrible on the road. In their last five away matches in the league, Udinese lost four times: 2-3 to Napoli, 0-1 to Juventus, 0-1 to Torino, and 1-3 to Inter. Something tells me that we should expect another away loss for this team. After all, their opponent is strong, very motivated, and sports-minded after losing to Milan.
Despite all of Atalanta's problems and inconsistency this season, it's unlikely that anyone will argue that they are the favorites in this match. Gasperini's team simply has a stronger lineup and a longer bench. And their tournament motivation is much higher than their opponents'. We don't think there will be any surprises in this match, and the favorites will add three points to their tally. Udinese seems to have exhausted all their strength and emotions at the start of the season. They haven't played good football in a while, and their results have been terrible. The head-to-head statistics between these teams are also in Atalanta's favor - in the last 10 matches, they have won seven times and only allowed their opponent to draw three times. Gasperini's players need the points desperately right now, and we don't think they will allow a slip-up in this round.
Prediction for the match: Atalanta to win.
