AS Roma hosts Atalanta in round 5 of Italian Serie A. The match will be played on Wednesday, September 25th at Stadio Olimpico (Rome)
Roma started the season very well (according to the results): the Romans are in fourth place in the Serie A standings, having earned 8 points. There is one very interesting trend: Fonseca is constantly playing with the 4-2-3-1 scheme, although he, depending on his rivals, mixed 4-2-3-1 and 4-3-3 formations in Shakhtar greatly. So far, Roma has taken its place: in 4 games, Roma scored 7.91 xPTS with 8 real points. If you look at the most recent match of the Romans, everything was very dramatic and, as they say, by a whisker. Roma owned the initiative (60% -40% in possession in favor of Roma), but Bologna also created very good attempts (1.34 xG for Bologna, which is simply beautiful at the beginning of the season), so the draw would have looked much more logical. Roma won in terms of the expected goals 1.47: 1.34, but Bologna did not lose in terms of obvious goal attempts (at least: 2:1 in favor of the Tuscans and 1:1 excluding penalties. Roma is playing brightly and spectacularly, but there is not enough stability in defense so far.
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Atalanta began this season very controversially. To understand it in general terms, just look at its match of the first round against SPAL: the Goddess first lost 0: 2, but then it managed to create many attempts and win with a 3:2 score. Now it’s important to understand that Atalanta is a top club in terms of game quality, so I expect a kind of comeback in the Champions League and promotion to the playoffs - the defeat to Dinamo Zagreb is insulting, but Atalanta still has chances for second place. And you can make sure that Atalanta is a top club in terms of game quality by looking at the xG-tables for the current and last season. The Goddess finished the last championship in the first place by the expected points, and now it is third, losing only to genius Inter of Conte, incredibly attractive Bologna and Lazio, which showed a great start. Atalanta is playing great now (so far, even better than abuilding Roma), but the team has obvious problems with conversion, and opponents are often lucky when converting the moments in the games with Atalanta.
In my opinion, betting on outcomes is very risky - Roma is still abuilding, Atalanta is still unstable (according to the results), and both can win. But one thing is clear: both teams play in an attacking style (they like to possess the ball a lot and often create goal attempts), so it’s logical to wait for a scoring match. My prediction is Over 3 goals scored.
Prediction for the match: Over 3.0 goals scored
