Arsenal hosts Brighton in round 38 of the English Premier League. The match will be played on Sunday, May 23rd at Emirates Stadium (London)
In the current season, the Gunners played worse at home than away. At home, Arsenal gained seven victories, tied four times, and suffered even defeats. Away, the team chalked up nine wins, three draws, and six defeats. In the last seven home games in all tournaments, the men of Arteta gained only one victory over one of the worst teams in the league, West Bromwich (3-1). With that victory, the Gunners knocked their opponent out of the Premier League. In the rest of the games in that segment, Arsenal tied three times and suffered three defeats. Even in the match against West Brom, Arsenal did not look like the undisputed favorite against the underdog. Although the Gunners had a possession advantage (66%), they allowed West Brom to move freely around the field and create danger near their box. The difference in shots was also small. Arsenal players shot on goal 15 times, and West Brom delivered 12 shots.
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Brighton spent most of the season at the bottom of the standings. Over the past 35 rounds, the highest place was 14th, and the team took it in round 34. Before the last match of the season, the Seagulls were on the 15th line. The conversion let Brighton down throughout the season. The team often showed good football and created many scoring chances. In total, Brighton shot on the opponents’ goal 482 times, and only six Premier League clubs have a higher indicator. At the same time, only 29.5% of the shots of the Seagulls hit the target, and this is the worst figure among all the clubs in the league. If Brighton had converted the chances a little better, its position in the standings would have been completely different. In terms of expected points, the Seagulls took 5th place in the standings, behind only Manchester City, Chelsea, Liverpool, and Manchester United.
Arsenal scores an average of 1.2 goals at home. The Gunners rarely manage to overcome the bar of one goal — they scored two goals or more in only seven out of 18 league games. In the match against Brighton, Arsenal players are unlikely to improve their statistics. The Seagulls concede 1.2 goals per away match on average. IF we look at general figures of the season, Brighton's performance is even better (1.1 goals). The Seagulls conceded less than two goals in 24 of 37 games. It will not be easy for Brighton to influence the total with goals scored. Although the team regularly creates chances, conversion lets it down in most cases. Brighton scored less than 2 goals in 27 of 37 games. Therefore, we are unlikely to see a goal extravaganza in the upcoming match.
Prediction for the match: Under 2.5 goals scored
