America Mineiro take on the visitors Bragantino in the first leg of 1/8-finals of Copa Sudamericana playoffs. The match will be played on Friday, August 4th at Estádio Raimundo Sampaio (Belo Horizonte).
Copa Sudamericana is a separate tournament. However, when teams from the same country face each other in the competition, it is always easier to compare them and identify the favorite. In this particular match-up, América Mineiro are not considered the favorite, even in their home game. In the Brazilian Championship, the "Rabbits" have been performing terribly this season. They are currently in the second-to-last position in the table, with only two wins in 16 rounds. In their last five matches in Serie A, the team drew with Atlético Mineiro (2-2) and Flamengo (1-1) but lost to Internacional (1-2), Coritiba (1-3), and Palmeiras (1-4). They were eliminated from the Brazilian Cup. I think that even in their home battle against the strong Bragantino, the "Rabbits" will, at best, end up with a draw.
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On the other hand, Bragantino have been performing exceptionally well this season. They are in the top six of the Serie A table and have suffered only one defeat in their last five matches – away to the league leader, Botafogo. In the other four matches, they did not concede a single goal, achieving goalless draws against São Paulo and Internacional and securing victories against Corinthians (1-0) and Fortaleza (3-0). In the South American Cup, the Red Bull team also performed well in the group stage, reaching the playoffs from the top spot without suffering a single defeat in six matches (four victories and two draws).
América had to play against Colo-Colo in the round of 16, as they advanced to the playoffs from their group in the second position. Even in the group stage, the team suffered two defeats against the Argentinean team Defensa y Justicia (1-2 and 2-3), with an additional draw against Colombian side Millonarios. What do we have before this match? Bragantino looks much better in the Brazilian Serie A and had a much smoother run in the group stage of the South American Cup. Furthermore, the head-to-head statistics favor Bragantino, as they have only lost to América once in their last five meetings. The current form of the teams also favors the visitors. Although the South American Cup is important for both money and prestige, the priority for Wagner Mancini's team is to concentrate on the national championship, where securing a spot in the top league will be very challenging. My prediction for the match is X2, meaning the guests will not lose at least. There are too many factors against América Mineiro's victory, except for the home stadium advantage. Relying solely on the support of their home fans is unlikely to be enough for the "Rabbits" to defeat the "Bulls." Additionally, I would add the over 1.5 goals bet to the X2 prediction, as both teams have consistently scored at least two goals in their head-to-head meetings for a long time.
Prediction for the match: Bragantino not to lose and Over 1.5 scored goals.
