Alaves welcome the visitors Valencia in the Spanish La Liga – Round 18. The match will be held on Saturday, January 5th, at the Estadio Mendizorrotza (Vitoria-Gasteiz).
Only two La Liga teams have not tasted a home defeat in this campaign yet. While the faultless Atletico Madrid’s streak is not surprising, Alaves’ 4-4-0 record is really sensational. In the modern football, even the world heavyweights suffer losses from time to time. Yet on their turfs. Barcelona, Bayern Munich, Manchester City – they all have featured bitter home defeats in this run. Alaves haven’t so far. Isn’t it time for this amazingly long series to break?
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In fact, the hosts’ loss has been long in coming. Yet in August they were losing to Betis, but managed to keep a 0:0 draw under the Expected Goals deficiency (0.58 to 1.58). The meetings with Espanyol (2:1), Getafe (1:1), Real Madrid (1:0), and Athletic (0:0) saw equal play and could end in any scoreline. Sevilla dominated at the Estadio Mendizorrotza (1:1), the frugal Huesca were 0:1 ahead (the final result is 2:1), and the crisis-hit Villarreal were put away only on the 90th minute (2:1). As per the developments, Alaves could lose in any of 8 home encounters. They were always lucky, but none of the wins was confident.
The winter break has probably offset the hosts’ rhythm, and the kicking into gear Valencia may turn the right team to upset their fans. Valencia’s potential provides for their fight for gold medals; the team, however, are just 8th in the standings because of the abundance of draws (10 matches of 17 ended level). The European Cups’ spots are very close anyways, and only 2 teams registered less defeats than the guests (3) – Barcelona (2) and Atletico (1). Well, it’s not that bad. The main Valencia’s improvement is their quick action near the opponent’s goal. In the last 6 rounds, the team scored more goals (8) than in 11 previous ones (7). Moreno and Parejo have finally got into shape. Сheryshev has recovered and was blistering in the last round. Mina did not feature a goal, but he was efficient. Valencia managed to score in 8 of 10 latest official encounters, failing to net only to Juventus and Real Madrid, the Spanish toppers. Their fight with Alaves, suffering disqualifications of the defender Duarte (16/0) and the midfielder Wakaso (12/0), is expected to be less tough.
Even Huesca, Villarreal, and Espanyol have found the net at the Estadio Mendizorrotza. In 7 of 8 latest clashes, Alaves let the opponents create over 1 xG. Under the Expected Goals in outings, Valencia sit 4th in the league table, and lately they’ve started to convert opportunities into goals. In 7 previous rounds, the guests scored 15 goals, though their opponents were Sevilla, Real Madrid, and Getafe. Considering all the above, we may predict a rather challenging match for Alaves suffering no home loss long ago.
Prediction for the match: Valencia to score over 1.0 goals.
