AC Milan take on the visitors Borussia Dortmund in the round 5 match of UEFA Champions League group stage. The match will be played on Tuesday, November 28th at Stadio Giuseppe Meazza (San Siro) (Milan).
In the fourth round of the group stage, Milan finally opened their scoring account in the current Champions League, defeating PSG 2-1. However, in the three previous matches in the tournament, the Italians couldn't score at all, playing goalless draws with Newcastle and Borussia, and then losing in France (0-3). Leao and Giroud can make a difference in the moment, but still, describing Stefano Pioli's team's attack as powerful wouldn't be accurate. However, the team can play reliably in defense, as indicated by two clean sheets in four Champions League matches. As for the Under 3 goals (U3) bet, it brought positive results or a push twice in four rounds.
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Borussia looks even better than their opponent concerning this bet. Besides the draw with Milan, the Yellow and Blacks kept two clean sheets, defeating Newcastle twice (1-0 and 2-0). They also suffered an away defeat from PSG (0-2). In all four Champions League matches, Dortmund played with a low total. The head coach of Borussia seems to have instilled a more historical attacking style in the team, realizing that relying only on scoring goals doesn't always yield results. He also taught the team to defend. Even in the Bundesliga, where Dortmund are used to attacking without worrying about their own goal, we have seen more frequent clean sheets from this team lately: 1-0 victories over Wolfsburg, Werder, and Hoffenheim.
Despite both teams needing a victory desperately, I don't expect many goals in this match. Both Italians and Germans understand that playing open football in such a crucial moment, where the cost of mistakes is high and the opponent is formidable, could be costly in the end. In my opinion, both Milan and Borussia will prioritize defensive reliability. They will primarily focus on not conceding, trying to catch the opponent on their mistake. Although the October match in Dortmund between these teams wasn't boring at all, they didn't manage to score a single goal in 90 minutes. I believe this time too, the fate of the match will be decided by one or at most two goals. The bet is Under 3 goals.
Prediction for the match: Under 3.0 scored goals.
