Las Palmas caught a break for international matches in inappropriate time. They were in amazing shape recorded 12 points in 6 games (only Barcelona earned more) and conceded only 2 goals. No doubt 2-week break cooled them down a bit and it will be hard to play on such spectacular level again.
Although Valencia have been suffering this season it doesn’t make Las Palmas an obvious favorite. Let’s recall Las Palmas managed to win only 6 of their 15 home games this season and most of them were over sides that were lower than Valencia in the standings. Moreover, all teams from Valencia managed to earn points here at Gran Canaria (Villarreal and even Levante). Las Palmas even failed to score in 40% of their home matches, so we can say bookmakers clearly overestimated the hosts.
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On top of that Valencia surely have advantage in the head-to-heads as they earned 16 points in 6 last matches against Las Palmas (5-1-0). And let’s be honest Valencia have way more skillful players in the squad. Moreover the Bats aren’t that bad against lowly sides this season (4-4-2). Valencia have lost 3 last matches in a row and they are expected to end this streak, considering the fact Gary Neville was sacked, so the players should have received certain boost.
Injury list report is also in favor of Valencia. Las Palmas’ goalkeeper Javi Varas and midfielder Hernan are now sidelined. We should mention Varas was one of their key factors of the team’s recent success. Valencia doesn’t have newly-injured players, however, Perez, Canselo and Gomes are close to fitness.
Two weeks ago when Las Palmas were in shape, while Valencia were out of it, the odds would be quite fair. But two weeks passed and Las Palmas have lost their form as such team cannot maintain that high level of performance throughout 6 weeks. Valencia, in turn, are likely to end their poor run with at least a tie. On top of that neither Las Palmas not Valencia have recorded a draw in their last 9 games. This streak may also end this game.
Prediction: Valencia to win with (-0.5) Asian handicap.
