Fluminense hosts Ceara in round 10 of Brazilian Serie A. The match will be played on Tuesday, July 16th at Maracanã (Rio de Janeiro)
Fluminense ranks sixteenth in the Brazilian Serie A standings. This team has 8 points (2 wins, 2 draws and 5 losses) after nine matches played. If you look at GD-xGD, it becomes clear that Fluminense has no luck: GD-xGD = -6.5 (goal difference: -3, and xGD = 3.5). This is significant, because the team is now very close to the relegation zone. The Fluminense's attack is fine: the team scored 13 goals in 9 matches with xG = 14.9 - there is underperforming, but the team still looks very good. In terms of the quality of shots, Fluminense also looks very good: xG/Sh = 0.12 (they share second place in the league). In terms of the game in defense, Fluminense looks very decent too, but they are not lucky either: Fluminense allowed 16 goals in 9 matches with xGA = 11.4, and they allow the most dangerous shots on their goal: xGA/Sh = 0.09.
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Ceara is located on the fourteenth place in the Brazilian Serie A standings. The team has 10 points (3 wins, 1 draw and 5 losses) after nine matches played. If you look at GD-xGD, you can say that Ceara is in its place: GD-xGD = 0.1 (goal difference: +1, xGD = 0.9) - there is overperforming, but it is minimal. As for the game in attack, Ceara looks not so bad: they scored 10 goals in 9 matches, despite the fact that their xG = 11.5 is quite obvious underperforming. The quality of shots delivered by Ceara is inferior to that of Fluminense: xG/Sh = 0.11 versus xG/Sh = 0.12. And Ceara overperforms in the defense: the team allowed 9 goals in 9 games, although their xGA = 10.6. The quality of the allowed shots is not the worst either - xGA/Sh = 0.1.
Fluminense deserves something more than a sixteenth place: this team has a very well organized defense, and the game in the attack seems to be very pretty. Ceara goes right in its place - the quality of the game corresponds to it. Considering that Fluminense plays well, plus it is a home match, and they cannot win for a long time, I will still give preference to the hosts - the quality of the game and the motivation may allow them to gain victory.
Prediction for the match: Fluminense to win
