It’s quite well-known fact that Atletico Madrid’s defense is probably the best in the world. Simeone’s side have conceded only 16 goals in 34 matches of the Primera. And if we exclude games against Real and Barcelona we will get 11 goals in 30 games. Atletico prefers to collect clean sheets, it’s easier for them as they save energy this way. Moreover, they will play Bayern Munich in the Champions League semifinals next week. So Atletico are expected to earn their usual 1:0 or 2:0 victory at Vicente Calderon.
And it’s likely to happen as Malaga obviously lack motivation and they just wait the season to end. The visitors have one of the least high-scoring offense lines in the league. On top of that they managed to net only 4 goals in their last 6 matches. Last matchday they were almost beaten by Rayo Vallecano, but managed to score on 90’. And they had troubles against Rayo, the team that seems to not have defense at all. Moreover we should mention Malaga have seen under 2.5 goals in their last 6 games.
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Malaga tend to play the same way against top-sides on the road – 0:1 against Barcelona, 0:0 against Real Madrid, 0:1 against Villarreal and 0:0 against Athletic Bilbao. They scored none and conceded only twice. It seems Malaga is a great choice for the bet on under against Atletico.
The hosts in turn conceded only 2 goals in their 10 home games against teams from the lower half of the table. On top of that Simeone’s side 23 of their 29 goals at Vicente Calderon to the teams that are lower than Malaga in the standings. Except the top-3 neither team conceded as little as Malaga did.
Prediction: under 2.5 goals in the match.